2023's Maximum Arctic Winter Sea Ice Extent Is The Fifth Lowest Ever

According to data prepared by the National Snow and Ice Data Center and NASA, the extent of Arctic Sea Ice this year peaked at just 14.62 million square kilometers (5.64 million square miles) in size. That works out to be roughly 1 million square kilometers (398,000 square miles) below the average maximum sea ice extent for the period from 1981 to 2010.

To put those numbers in perspective, the sea ice extent this year was smaller than that thirty-year average maximum by an area which calculates out to about the combined land area in the states of Arizona and Texas.

The Arctic Sea Ice extent measured on March 6, 2023, when the ice coverage should be near its peak, was the fifth lowest ever recorded.The yellow outline shows the median sea ice extent for February from 1981–2010. Image: NASA Earth Observatory

The low maximum this year is a concern for multiple reasons.

Less ice in general means more solar energy striking the Arctic will be absorbed by the ocean and less will be reflected away. That raises ocean temperatures higher at the Arctic, which will tend to add a reinforcing effect to already dangerous climate crisis feedback loops including findings that average surface temperatures for all oceans on the planet recently reached a record all-time high. Those temperatures, coupled with what looks to be a broad expanse of cold freshwater “caps” trapping warm northward-flowing ocean currents below, can cause what is left of the Arctic Ice melt far faster than normal.

That, along with the passing of the current La Niña temperature cycle to the much warmer and differently propagating El Niño currents, could mean this is the year which could result in the lowest minimum Arctic Ice extent in history.

Plot of Arctic Sea ice forming and melting cycles over time, updated as of March 6, 2023. Image: NASA Earth Observatory

Assuming the summer proceeds as expected, with far more Arctic Sea Ice melting this year than in the past, researchers point out we may see a significant loss in multi-year sea ice than in the past.

“Low minimums are typically seen as more important than low maximums because the minimums are directly tied to how much multi-year ice survived in a given year in the Arctic,” said NASA Goddard Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory head and sea ice specialist Nathan Kurtz about the phenomenon. “The long-term trend towards lower minimums means an overall loss of multi-year ice, which has significant impacts to the climate.”

If the ice declines as dramatically as all projections indicate, the dramatically low sea ice maximums could lead to this fall being one of the lowest minimum sea ice coverage levels in history.